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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
10/14/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac49%
×Draw23%
Radnički Svilajnac28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.79
Radnički Svilajnac
1.30

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 78 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
72%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Radnički Svilajnac
77%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
51%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
27%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
83%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
53%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
26%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
73%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
37%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
64%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.79

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
49%
level
23%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
28%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Radnički Svilajnac

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Radnički Svilajnac 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.