Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 0–1 Metalac GM

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalac GM

12/10/2023

Prva Liga · Round 20Stadion Hesna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica45%

×Draw30%

Metalac GM25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički Sr. MitrovicaExpected goals in this matchMetalac GM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.83

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.21

Metalac GM

0.83

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 70 away

1.16

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.16

Metalac GM

0.86

allows per match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.81

Metalac GM

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica ↓

Metalac GM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or draw

75%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica or Metalac GM

70%

Draw or Metalac GM

55%

Winning margin

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+

20%

Metalac GM wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals

70%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals

34%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals

12%

Metalac GM 1+ goals

56%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

20%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)

64%

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.81 · 91 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 1.16 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more

45%

level

30%

Metalac GM scores more

25%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnički Sr. Mitrovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff