Metalac GM 1–0 Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

Metalac GM

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

9/3/2023

Prva Liga · Round 5Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Metalac GM48%

×Draw28%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchRadnički Sr. Mitrovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.84

Metalac GM

1.33

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.84

Metalac GM creates 58% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 91 away

1.49

creates per match

0.82

0.86

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

0.82

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

76%

Metalac GM or Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

72%

Draw or Radnički Sr. Mitrovica

52%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

23%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

74%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

38%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

15%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 1+ goals

57%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 2+ goals

21%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

67%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Radnički Sr. Mitrovica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica attack 0.82 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metalac GM scores more

48%

level

28%

Radnički Sr. Mitrovica scores more

24%

Metalac GM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff