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Radnički Sombor vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
CANC
14:00
Podunavac
Podunavac
3/25/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Radnički Sombor53%
×Draw24%
Podunavac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.74
Podunavac
1.08

Radnički Sombor creates 61% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
76%
Radnički Sombor or Podunavac
76%
Draw or Podunavac
47%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
29%
Podunavac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
82%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
52%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
25%
Podunavac 1+ goals
66%
Podunavac 2+ goals
29%
Podunavac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
69%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.74

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
53%
level
24%
Podunavac scores more
24%

Radnički Sombor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Radnički Sombor host Podunavac

March 25, 2023: Radnički Sombor take on Podunavac in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Radnički Sombor host Podunavac at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.