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Podunavac vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Podunavac
Podunavac
FT
1 – 0
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
9/4/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Podunavac43%
×Draw26%
Radnički Sombor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podunavac
1.42
Radnički Sombor
1.14

Podunavac creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

creates per match

Podunavac
1.38
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Podunavac
0.98
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Podunavac+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podunavac ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Podunavac or draw
70%
Podunavac or Radnički Sombor
74%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
57%

Winning margin

Podunavac wins by 2+
21%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Podunavac 1+ goals
76%
Podunavac 2+ goals
41%
Podunavac 3+ goals
17%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
68%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
32%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podunavac (draw refunded)
59%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podunavac at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podunavac attack 1.38 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Podunavac defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podunavac scores more
43%
level
26%
Radnički Sombor scores more
30%

Podunavac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podunavac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podunavac vs Radnički Sombor

Podunavac beat Radnički Sombor 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Podunavac in Belegiš.