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Radnički Sombor vs Dinamo Pančevo — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
CANC
13:30
Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
3/4/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnički Sombor57%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Pančevo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.88
Dinamo Pančevo
1.03

Radnički Sombor creates 83% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Dinamo Pančevo
1.13

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Dinamo Pančevo
1.60

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
80%
Radnički Sombor or Dinamo Pančevo
78%
Draw or Dinamo Pančevo
43%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
56%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
29%
Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
74%
Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
57%
level
22%
Dinamo Pančevo scores more
20%

Radnički Sombor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Radnički Sombor host Dinamo Pančevo

March 4, 2023: Radnički Sombor take on Dinamo Pančevo in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Radnički Sombor host Dinamo Pančevo at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.