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Dinamo Pančevo vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
8/13/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo45%
×Draw25%
Radnički Sombor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.59
Radnički Sombor
1.25

Dinamo Pančevo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
70%
Dinamo Pančevo or Radnički Sombor
75%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
23%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
21%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
71%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
36%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
60%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
45%
level
25%
Radnički Sombor scores more
30%

Dinamo Pančevo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 1–2 Radnički Sombor

Radnički Sombor beat Dinamo Pančevo 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.