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Radnički Sombor vs Borac Sakule — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
4 – 2
Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
5/29/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 37Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Radnički Sombor54%
×Draw23%
Borac Sakule24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.88
Borac Sakule
1.17

Radnički Sombor creates 61% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Borac Sakule
1.40

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Borac Sakule
1.60

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Borac Sakule →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
76%
Radnički Sombor or Borac Sakule
77%
Draw or Borac Sakule
46%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
31%
Borac Sakule wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
56%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
29%
Borac Sakule 1+ goals
69%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
33%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
70%
Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
54%
level
23%
Borac Sakule scores more
24%

Radnički Sombor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Sombor 4–2 Borac Sakule

Radnički Sombor beat Borac Sakule 4-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Fk Radnički Zrenjanin in Zrenjanin.