Borac Sakule 0–1 Radnički Sombor: Result & Stats

Borac Sakule

FT

0 – 1

Radnički Sombor

10/17/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion Milan Sredanović

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule48%

×Draw24%

Radnički Sombor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borac SakuleExpected goals in this matchRadnički Sombor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.23

Borac Sakule

1.67

Radnički Sombor

1.23

Borac Sakule creates 36% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 49 away

1.86

creates per match

1.29

1.16

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Borac Sakule

1.86

Radnički Sombor

1.29

allows per match

Borac Sakule

1.16

Radnički Sombor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

Radnički Sombor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw

72%

Borac Sakule or Radnički Sombor

76%

Draw or Radnički Sombor

52%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+

25%

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals

81%

Borac Sakule 2+ goals

50%

Borac Sakule 3+ goals

23%

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

71%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

35%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)

63%

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Borac Sakule scores more

48%

level

24%

Radnički Sombor scores more

28%

Borac Sakule at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff