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Radnički Sombor vs Borac Šajkaš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
4/20/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnički Sombor59%
×Draw22%
Borac Šajkaš19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.87
Borac Šajkaš
0.94

Radnički Sombor creates 99% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 60 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
Borac Šajkaš
0.93

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
Borac Šajkaš
1.57

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

Borac Šajkaš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
81%
Radnički Sombor or Borac Šajkaš
78%
Draw or Borac Šajkaš
41%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
34%
Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
56%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
29%
Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
61%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
24%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
76%
Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.87

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
59%
level
22%
Borac Šajkaš scores more
19%

Radnički Sombor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Radnički Sombor 0–0 Borac Šajkaš

Radnički Sombor and Borac Šajkaš drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.