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Borac Šajkaš vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
CANC
14:30
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
4/29/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion Borac Šajkaš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Borac Šajkaš44%
×Draw26%
Radnički Sombor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Šajkaš
1.49
Radnički Sombor
1.19

Borac Šajkaš creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 49 away

creates per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.51
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Borac Šajkaš
1.08
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Šajkaš ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Borac Šajkaš or draw
70%
Borac Šajkaš or Radnički Sombor
74%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
56%

Winning margin

Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
22%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
77%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
44%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
19%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
70%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
33%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
59%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Šajkaš at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Šajkaš attack 1.51 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.49

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borac Šajkaš scores more
44%
level
26%
Radnički Sombor scores more
30%

Borac Šajkaš at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borac Šajkaš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Borac Šajkaš host Radnički Sombor

April 29, 2023: Borac Šajkaš take on Radnički Sombor in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Borac Šajkaš host Radnički Sombor at Stadion Borac Šajkaš.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.