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Radnički Sombor vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
FT
2 – 1
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
9/10/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Radnički Sombor59%
×Draw22%
1. Maj Ruma19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Sombor
1.94
1. Maj Ruma
1.00

Radnički Sombor creates 94% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 72 away

creates per match

Radnički Sombor
2.16
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Radnički Sombor
0.94
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Sombor ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Radnički Sombor or draw
81%
Radnički Sombor or 1. Maj Ruma
78%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
41%

Winning margin

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
35%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
86%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
58%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
30%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
63%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
26%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
76%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Sombor at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 51 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Sombor attack 2.16 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.94

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Radnički Sombor defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Radnički Sombor scores more
59%
level
22%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
19%

Radnički Sombor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Radnički Sombor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Sombor vs 1. Maj Ruma

Radnički Sombor beat 1. Maj Ruma 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sombor.