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1. Maj Ruma vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
CANC
14:00
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
4/1/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

1. Maj Ruma43%
×Draw27%
Radnički Sombor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. Maj Ruma
1.36
Radnički Sombor
1.09

1. Maj Ruma creates 25% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 49 away

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma
1.25
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma
0.90
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw
70%
1. Maj Ruma or Radnički Sombor
73%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
57%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
20%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
74%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
39%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
16%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
66%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
30%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
59%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more
43%
level
27%
Radnički Sombor scores more
30%

1. Maj Ruma at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 1. Maj Ruma host Radnički Sombor

April 1, 2023: 1. Maj Ruma take on Radnički Sombor in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

1. Maj Ruma host Radnički Sombor at Stadion Maj Ruma.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.