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Radnicki Pirot vs Pčinja Trgovište — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
5/28/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 28Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Radnicki Pirot63%
×Draw20%
Pčinja Trgovište17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
2.16
Pčinja Trgovište
1.04

Radnicki Pirot creates 108% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 63 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Pčinja Trgovište
1.11

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Pčinja Trgovište
1.87

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Pčinja Trgovište →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
83%
Radnicki Pirot or Pčinja Trgovište
80%
Draw or Pčinja Trgovište
37%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
39%
Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
88%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
63%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
36%
Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
65%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
28%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
78%
Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Pčinja Trgovište away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.16

Pčinja Trgovište attack 1.11 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
63%
level
20%
Pčinja Trgovište scores more
17%

Radnicki Pirot at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnicki Pirot 0–0 Pčinja Trgovište

Radnicki Pirot and Pčinja Trgovište drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.