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Pčinja Trgovište vs Radnicki Pirot — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Pčinja Trgovište
Pčinja Trgovište
FT
3 – 1
Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
11/5/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion Trgovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pčinja Trgovište44%
×Draw23%
Radnicki Pirot32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pčinja Trgovište
1.73
Radnicki Pirot
1.45

Pčinja Trgovište creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 74 away

creates per match

Pčinja Trgovište
2.03
Radnicki Pirot
1.68

allows per match

Pčinja Trgovište
1.22
Radnicki Pirot
1.43

finishing

Pčinja Trgovište+0.00on par
Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pčinja Trgovište ↓

Radnicki Pirot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pčinja Trgovište or draw
68%
Pčinja Trgovište or Radnicki Pirot
77%
Draw or Radnicki Pirot
56%

Winning margin

Pčinja Trgovište wins by 2+
23%
Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pčinja Trgovište 1+ goals
82%
Pčinja Trgovište 2+ goals
52%
Pčinja Trgovište 3+ goals
25%
Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
77%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
42%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pčinja Trgovište (draw refunded)
58%
Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pčinja Trgovište at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pčinja Trgovište attack 2.03 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.73

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Pčinja Trgovište defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pčinja Trgovište scores more
44%
level
23%
Radnicki Pirot scores more
32%

Pčinja Trgovište at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pčinja Trgovište will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Pčinja Trgovište 3–1 Radnicki Pirot

Pčinja Trgovište beat Radnicki Pirot 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trgovište in Trgovište.