Radnicki Pirot 1–0 Meševo: Result & Stats

Radnicki Pirot

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Meševo

8/21/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Radnicki Pirot63%

×Draw20%

Meševo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki PirotExpected goals in this matchMeševo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.00

Radnicki Pirot

2.13

Meševo

1.00

Radnicki Pirot creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

2.44

creates per match

1.04

0.97

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot

2.44

Meševo

1.04

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot

0.97

Meševo

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Meševo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw

83%

Radnicki Pirot or Meševo

80%

Draw or Meševo

37%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

39%

Meševo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

88%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

63%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

35%

Meševo 1+ goals

63%

Meševo 2+ goals

26%

Meševo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

79%

Meševo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.13

Meševo attack 1.04 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more

63%

level

20%

Meševo scores more

17%

Radnicki Pirot at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff