Meševo 5–2 Radnicki Pirot: Result & Stats

Meševo

FT

5 – 2

Radnicki Pirot

3/11/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion FK Meševo Doljane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Meševo45%

×Draw24%

Radnicki Pirot32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeševoExpected goals in this matchRadnicki Pirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.40

Meševo

1.71

Radnicki Pirot

1.40

Meševo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 74 away

2.00

creates per match

1.68

1.11

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Meševo

2.00

Radnicki Pirot

1.68

allows per match

Meševo

1.11

Radnicki Pirot

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meševo+0.00on par

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meševo ↓

Radnicki Pirot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Meševo or draw

68%

Meševo or Radnicki Pirot

76%

Draw or Radnicki Pirot

55%

Winning margin

Meševo wins by 2+

24%

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Meševo 1+ goals

82%

Meševo 2+ goals

51%

Meševo 3+ goals

24%

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

75%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

41%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Meševo (draw refunded)

59%

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meševo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meševo attack 2.00 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Meševo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Meševo scores more

45%

level

24%

Radnicki Pirot scores more

32%

Meševo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Meševo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff