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Radnicki Pirot vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
3 – 0
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
3/16/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Radnicki Pirot57%
×Draw23%
Jedinstvo Kruševac20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
1.82
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

Radnicki Pirot creates 90% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
80%
Radnicki Pirot or Jedinstvo Kruševac
77%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
43%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
33%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
84%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
54%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
27%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
62%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
25%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
75%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.82

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
57%
level
23%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
20%

Radnicki Pirot at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnicki Pirot 3–0 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Radnicki Pirot beat Jedinstvo Kruševac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.