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Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Radnicki Pirot — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
FT
1 – 0
Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
3/16/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac44%
×Draw23%
Radnicki Pirot32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.74
Radnicki Pirot
1.46

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 74 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
2.05
Radnicki Pirot
1.68

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.23
Radnicki Pirot
1.43

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par
Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Radnicki Pirot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw
68%
Jedinstvo Kruševac or Radnicki Pirot
77%
Draw or Radnicki Pirot
56%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
23%
Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
82%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
52%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
25%
Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
77%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
43%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
58%
Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.74

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
44%
level
23%
Radnicki Pirot scores more
32%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Kruševac vs Radnicki Pirot

Jedinstvo Kruševac beat Radnicki Pirot 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936 in Kruševac.