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Radnicki Pirot vs Dinamo Vranje — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
2 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
8/22/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Radnicki Pirot71%
×Draw18%
Dinamo Vranje11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
2.15
Dinamo Vranje
0.70

Radnicki Pirot creates 207% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 7 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Dinamo Vranje
0.43

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Dinamo Vranje
1.86

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
89%
Radnicki Pirot or Dinamo Vranje
82%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
29%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
46%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
88%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
63%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
36%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
50%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
16%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
87%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.43 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
71%
level
18%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
11%

Radnicki Pirot at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki Pirot vs Dinamo Vranje

Radnicki Pirot beat Dinamo Vranje 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.