Dinamo Vranje vs Radnicki Pirot

Dinamo Vranje

CANC

13:00

Radnicki Pirot

3/12/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje41%

×Draw23%

Radnicki Pirot36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchRadnicki Pirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.59

Dinamo Vranje

1.71

Radnicki Pirot

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 74 away

2.00

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

2.00

Radnicki Pirot

1.68

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Radnicki Pirot

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Radnicki Pirot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

64%

Dinamo Vranje or Radnicki Pirot

77%

Draw or Radnicki Pirot

59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

21%

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

82%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

51%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

24%

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals

80%

Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals

47%

Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

53%

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

41%

level

23%

Radnicki Pirot scores more

36%

Dinamo Vranje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff