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Radnicki Pirot vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Backa
Backa
10/19/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 15Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Radnicki Pirot46%
×Draw29%
Backa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
1.24
Backa
0.82

Radnicki Pirot creates 51% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
1.19
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.91
Backa
1.29

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
75%
Radnicki Pirot or Backa
71%
Draw or Backa
54%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
21%
Backa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
71%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
35%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
13%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
20%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
65%
Backa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.19 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Backa attack 0.74 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
46%
level
29%
Backa scores more
25%

Radnicki Pirot at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki Pirot vs Backa

Radnicki Pirot beat Backa 3-0 in Prva Liga on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.