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Backa vs Radnicki Pirot — Prva Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
6/20/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 30Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Backa52%
×Draw27%
Radnicki Pirot21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.46
Radnicki Pirot
0.82

Backa creates 78% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Backa
1.36
Radnicki Pirot
0.88

allows per match

Backa
0.76
Radnicki Pirot
1.56

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Radnicki Pirot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Backa or draw
79%
Backa or Radnicki Pirot
73%
Draw or Radnicki Pirot
48%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
26%
Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
77%
Backa 2+ goals
43%
Backa 3+ goals
18%
Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
56%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
20%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
71%
Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 1.36 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Radnicki Pirot attack 0.88 + Backa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Backa scores more
52%
level
27%
Radnicki Pirot scores more
21%

Backa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backa vs Radnicki Pirot

Backa beat Radnicki Pirot 3-0 in Prva Liga on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.