Radnički Obrenovac 4–0 RAD: Result & Stats

Radnički Obrenovac

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

RAD

6/1/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 30Stadion Pored Kolubare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac70%

×Draw18%

RAD12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički ObrenovacExpected goals in this matchRAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.83

Radnički Obrenovac

2.31

RAD

0.83

Radnički Obrenovac creates 178% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 15 away

1.90

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac

1.90

RAD

0.67

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac

1.00

RAD

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

RAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw

88%

Radnički Obrenovac or RAD

82%

Draw or RAD

30%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+

47%

RAD wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals

90%

Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals

67%

Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals

40%

RAD 1+ goals

56%

RAD 2+ goals

20%

RAD 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)

85%

RAD (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.31

RAD attack 0.67 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more

70%

level

18%

RAD scores more

12%

Radnički Obrenovac at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff