RAD 2–0 Radnički Obrenovac: Result & Stats

RAD

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Obrenovac

11/18/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 15Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RAD28%

×Draw27%

Radnički Obrenovac45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RADExpected goals in this matchRadnički Obrenovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.38

RAD

1.04

Radnički Obrenovac

1.38

Radnički Obrenovac creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

0.67

creates per match

1.43

1.33

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

RAD

0.67

Radnički Obrenovac

1.43

allows per match

RAD

1.33

Radnički Obrenovac

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RAD+0.00on par

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Radnički Obrenovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

RAD or draw

55%

RAD or Radnički Obrenovac

73%

Draw or Radnički Obrenovac

72%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+

11%

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals

65%

RAD 2+ goals

28%

RAD 3+ goals

9%

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals

75%

Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals

40%

Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)

39%

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Radnički Obrenovac away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 0.67 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.43 + RAD defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RAD scores more

28%

level

27%

Radnički Obrenovac scores more

45%

Radnički Obrenovac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff