Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Obrenovac vs Prva Iskra — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
10/19/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 10Stadion Pored Kolubare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac50%
×Draw24%
Prva Iskra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Obrenovac
1.67
Prva Iskra
1.11

Radnički Obrenovac creates 50% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 71 away

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.90
Prva Iskra
1.23

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.00
Prva Iskra
1.44

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par
Prva Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

Prva Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw
75%
Radnički Obrenovac or Prva Iskra
76%
Draw or Prva Iskra
50%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
27%
Prva Iskra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
81%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
50%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
23%
Prva Iskra 1+ goals
67%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
30%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
67%
Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

Prva Iskra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + Prva Iskra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.67

Prva Iskra attack 1.23 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more
50%
level
24%
Prva Iskra scores more
25%

Radnički Obrenovac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Radnički Obrenovac 4–1 Prva Iskra

Radnički Obrenovac beat Prva Iskra 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pored Kolubare in Obrenovac.