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Prva Iskra vs Radnički Obrenovac — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
10/4/2025Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Prva Iskra38%
×Draw25%
Radnički Obrenovac37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prva Iskra
1.41
Radnički Obrenovac
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 98 away

creates per match

Prva Iskra
1.41
Radnički Obrenovac
1.43

allows per match

Prva Iskra
1.32
Radnički Obrenovac
1.41

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par
Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

Radnički Obrenovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw
63%
Prva Iskra or Radnički Obrenovac
75%
Draw or Radnički Obrenovac
62%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+
18%
Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals
76%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
41%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
17%
Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
75%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
40%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
51%
Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

Radnički Obrenovac away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.43 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Prva Iskra scores more
38%
level
25%
Radnički Obrenovac scores more
37%

Prva Iskra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Prva Iskra 1–2 Radnički Obrenovac

Radnički Obrenovac beat Prva Iskra 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 4, 2025.