Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radnički Obrenovac vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Radnički Obrenovac
Radnički Obrenovac
FT
2 – 2
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
10/10/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 10Stadion Pored Kolubare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Radnički Obrenovac62%
×Draw21%
Crvena Zvezda MML17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Obrenovac
1.95
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.91

Radnički Obrenovac creates 114% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 27 away

creates per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.90
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

Radnički Obrenovac
1.00
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Obrenovac ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radnički Obrenovac or draw
83%
Radnički Obrenovac or Crvena Zvezda MML
79%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
38%

Winning margin

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+
37%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals
86%
Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals
58%
Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals
31%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
60%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
23%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)
78%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Obrenovac at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 98 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.90 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Radnički Obrenovac scores more
62%
level
21%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
17%

Radnički Obrenovac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Radnički Obrenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Radnički Obrenovac 2–2 Crvena Zvezda MML

Radnički Obrenovac and Crvena Zvezda MML drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Pored Kolubare in Obrenovac.