Crvena Zvezda MML 1–0 Radnički Obrenovac

Crvena Zvezda MML

FT

1 – 0

Radnički Obrenovac

4/18/2021

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 29Stadion Mali Mokri Lug

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML38%

×Draw26%

Radnički Obrenovac36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda MMLExpected goals in this matchRadnički Obrenovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.30

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.35

Radnički Obrenovac

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 98 away

1.29

creates per match

1.43

1.18

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.29

Radnički Obrenovac

1.43

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.18

Radnički Obrenovac

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Radnički Obrenovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

Radnički Obrenovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw

64%

Crvena Zvezda MML or Radnički Obrenovac

74%

Draw or Radnički Obrenovac

62%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+

17%

Radnički Obrenovac wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals

74%

Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals

39%

Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals

15%

Radnički Obrenovac 1+ goals

73%

Radnički Obrenovac 2+ goals

37%

Radnički Obrenovac 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)

52%

Radnički Obrenovac (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Radnički Obrenovac away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + Radnički Obrenovac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Radnički Obrenovac attack 1.43 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more

38%

level

26%

Radnički Obrenovac scores more

36%

Crvena Zvezda MML at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda MML will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff