Radnički Novi Beograd 1–0 Proleter Novi SAD

Radnički Novi Beograd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

S. Lukić 76' (pen)

3/18/2023

Prva Liga · Round 24Stadion FK Radnički Beograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd36%

×Draw29%

Proleter Novi SAD36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnički Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

Radnički Novi Beograd

1.13

Proleter Novi SAD

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

0.97

creates per match

1.06

1.19

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd

0.97

Proleter Novi SAD

1.06

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd

1.19

Proleter Novi SAD

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw

64%

Radnički Novi Beograd or Proleter Novi SAD

71%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

64%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+

15%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals

68%

Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals

31%

Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals

11%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

68%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

31%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

50%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.06 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more

36%

level

29%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

36%

Radnički Novi Beograd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Radnički Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

V. Milosavljev← O. Mažić

46'

B. Blagojević← V. Balabanović

69'

M. Lukić← S. Andrić

69'

L. Serdar← V. Mladenović

76'

S. LukićPenalty

81'

M. Milovanovic

81'

M. Iharoš← L. Marjanović

84'

L. Milisavljević← M. Balabanović

89'

N. Gluščević← M. Gordić

Radnički

Proleter

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Černišev

69'▲M. Lukić←▼S. Andrić

81'▲M. Iharoš←▼L. Marjanović

89'▲N. Gluščević←▼M. Gordić

Radnički Novi Beograd substitutes

LukićIharošGluščević

Manager: B. Žigić

46'▲V. Milosavljev←▼O. Mažić

46'▲B. Blagojević←▼V. Balabanović

69'▲L. Serdar←▼V. Mladenović

84'▲L. Milisavljević←▼M. Balabanović

Proleter Novi SAD substitutes

MilosavljevBlagojevićSerdarMilisavljević