Proleter Novi SAD 1–0 Radnički Novi Beograd

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radnički Novi Beograd

9/18/2022

Prva Liga · Round 9GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD55%

×Draw26%

Radnički Novi Beograd19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchRadnički Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.79

Proleter Novi SAD

1.55

Radnički Novi Beograd

0.79

Proleter Novi SAD creates 96% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 38 away

1.13

creates per match

0.76

0.81

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.13

Radnički Novi Beograd

0.76

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

0.81

Radnički Novi Beograd

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

81%

Proleter Novi SAD or Radnički Novi Beograd

74%

Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd

45%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

29%

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

79%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

46%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

20%

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals

55%

Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals

19%

Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

74%

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.13 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

55%

level

26%

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more

19%

Proleter Novi SAD at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff