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Radnički Novi Beograd vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
5/8/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 4Stadion FK Radnički Beograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd29%
×Draw31%
Mladost Novi Sad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Novi Beograd
0.88
Mladost Novi Sad
1.08

Mladost Novi Sad creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
0.97
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.19
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw
60%
Radnički Novi Beograd or Mladost Novi Sad
69%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
71%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
10%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
59%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
22%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
6%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
42%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
29%
level
31%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
40%

Mladost Novi Sad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Radnički Novi Beograd 0–2 Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Radnički Novi Beograd 2-0 in Prva Liga on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Radnički Beograd in Beograd.