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Mladost Novi Sad vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
3/11/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 24GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad57%
×Draw25%
Radnički Novi Beograd19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.63
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.82

Mladost Novi Sad creates 99% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
81%
Mladost Novi Sad or Radnički Novi Beograd
75%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
43%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
31%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
80%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
48%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
22%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
56%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
20%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
75%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
57%
level
25%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
19%

Mladost Novi Sad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Radnički Novi Beograd

Radnički Novi Beograd beat Mladost Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at GAT Arena in Novi Sad.