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Radnički Novi Beograd vs Macva — Prva Liga 2018

Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Macva
Macva
10/8/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 11Stadion FK Radnički Beograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd37%
×Draw30%
Macva32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.07
Macva
0.97

Radnički Novi Beograd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 91 away

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
0.97
Macva
0.75

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.19
Macva
1.18

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

Macva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw
68%
Radnički Novi Beograd or Macva
70%
Draw or Macva
63%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
15%
Macva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
66%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
29%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
9%
Macva 1+ goals
62%
Macva 2+ goals
25%
Macva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
54%
Macva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Macva away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + Macva defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Macva attack 0.75 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
37%
level
30%
Macva scores more
32%

Radnički Novi Beograd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Radnički Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Radnički Novi Beograd 1–1 Macva

Radnički Novi Beograd and Macva drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Radnički Beograd in Beograd.