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Macva vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Macva
Macva
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
8/14/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 3Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Macva60%
×Draw24%
Radnički Novi Beograd16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macva
1.67
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.74

Macva creates 126% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 38 away

creates per match

Macva
1.37
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

Macva
0.73
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

Macva+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Macva or draw
84%
Macva or Radnički Novi Beograd
76%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
40%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+
33%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals
81%
Macva 2+ goals
50%
Macva 3+ goals
23%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
52%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
17%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)
78%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.73 · 94 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 1.37 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.67

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + Macva defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Macva scores more
60%
level
24%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
16%

Macva at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Macva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Macva vs Radnički Novi Beograd

Macva beat Radnički Novi Beograd 2-1 in Prva Liga on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mačva in Šabac.