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Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
11/9/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 15Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Radnicki NIS48%
×Draw25%
Novi Pazar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.58
Novi Pazar
1.10

Radnicki NIS creates 44% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 114 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
74%
Radnicki NIS or Novi Pazar
75%
Draw or Novi Pazar
52%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
25%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
79%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
47%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
21%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
67%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
30%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
65%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
48%
level
25%
Novi Pazar scores more
26%

Radnicki NIS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar

Radnicki NIS beat Novi Pazar 2-1 in Super Liga on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Čair in Niš.