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Novi Pazar vs Radnicki NIS — Super Liga 2026

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
4/7/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 30Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Novi Pazar43%
×Draw26%
Radnicki NIS31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.44
Radnicki NIS
1.17

Novi Pazar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 148 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.44
Radnicki NIS
1.01

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.32
Radnicki NIS
1.43

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Radnicki NIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
69%
Novi Pazar or Radnicki NIS
74%
Draw or Radnicki NIS
57%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
21%
Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
76%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
42%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
18%
Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
69%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
33%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
58%
Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Novi Pazar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
43%
level
26%
Radnicki NIS scores more
31%

Novi Pazar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs Radnicki NIS

Novi Pazar and Radnicki NIS drew 3-3 in Super Liga on April 7, 2025.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.