Radnicki NIS 3–0 Napredak: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Napredak

9/14/2025

Super Liga · Round 8Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Radnicki NIS52%

×Draw25%

Napredak23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchNapredak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.98

Radnicki NIS

1.60

Napredak

0.98

Radnicki NIS creates 63% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

1.54

creates per match

0.84

1.13

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.54

Napredak

0.84

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.13

Napredak

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Napredak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

77%

Radnicki NIS or Napredak

75%

Draw or Napredak

48%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

27%

Napredak wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

80%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

47%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

22%

Napredak 1+ goals

62%

Napredak 2+ goals

26%

Napredak 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

69%

Napredak (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Napredak defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Napredak attack 0.84 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

52%

level

25%

Napredak scores more

23%

Radnicki NIS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff