Napredak 2–4 Radnicki NIS: Result & Stats

Napredak

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Radnicki NIS

2/14/2026

Super Liga · Round 23Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Napredak40%

×Draw28%

Radnicki NIS32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapredakExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Napredak

1.27

Radnicki NIS

1.11

Napredak creates 14% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 148 away

1.10

creates per match

1.01

1.21

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Napredak

1.10

Radnicki NIS

1.01

allows per match

Napredak

1.21

Radnicki NIS

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Napredak or draw

68%

Napredak or Radnicki NIS

72%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

60%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+

18%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals

72%

Napredak 2+ goals

36%

Napredak 3+ goals

14%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

67%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

30%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)

55%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Napredak scores more

40%

level

28%

Radnicki NIS scores more

32%

Napredak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff