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Radnicki NIS vs Javor — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Javor
Javor
2/18/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Radnicki NIS52%
×Draw24%
Javor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.67
Javor
1.04

Radnicki NIS creates 61% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 90 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Javor
0.96

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Javor
1.80

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Javor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Javor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
76%
Radnicki NIS or Javor
76%
Draw or Javor
48%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
28%
Javor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
81%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
50%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
23%
Javor 1+ goals
65%
Javor 2+ goals
28%
Javor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
69%
Javor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Javor away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.80 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Javor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Javor attack 0.96 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
52%
level
24%
Javor scores more
24%

Radnicki NIS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Radnicki NIS 1–0 Javor

Radnicki NIS beat Javor 1-0 in Super Liga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Čair in Niš.