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Javor vs Radnicki NIS — Super Liga 2026

Javor
Javor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
9/27/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 10Stadion Kraj Moravice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Javor41%
×Draw27%
Radnicki NIS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Javor
1.33
Radnicki NIS
1.14

Javor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 148 away

creates per match

Javor
1.24
Radnicki NIS
1.01

allows per match

Javor
1.27
Radnicki NIS
1.43

finishing

Javor+0.00on par
Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Javor ↓

Radnicki NIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Javor or draw
68%
Javor or Radnicki NIS
73%
Draw or Radnicki NIS
59%

Winning margin

Javor wins by 2+
19%
Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Javor 1+ goals
74%
Javor 2+ goals
38%
Javor 3+ goals
15%
Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
68%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
32%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Javor (draw refunded)
56%
Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Javor at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Javor attack 1.24 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Javor defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Javor scores more
41%
level
27%
Radnicki NIS scores more
32%

Javor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Javor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Javor 2–1 Radnicki NIS

Javor beat Radnicki NIS 2-1 in Super Liga on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Moravice in Ivanjica.