Radnicki NIS 3–0 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IMT Novi Beograd

P. Ivelja 90+6'

T. Stewart 83'

A. Vojnović 66' (pen)

2/9/2025

Super Liga · Round 22Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Radnicki NIS47%

×Draw25%

IMT Novi Beograd28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.17

Radnicki NIS

1.57

IMT Novi Beograd

1.17

Radnicki NIS creates 34% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 55 away

1.54

creates per match

1.20

1.13

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.54

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.13

IMT Novi Beograd

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

72%

Radnicki NIS or IMT Novi Beograd

75%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

53%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

24%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

79%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

46%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

21%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

69%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

33%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

62%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

47%

level

25%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

28%

Radnicki NIS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Vojnović

Radnicki NIS · D

8.2

Match Events

13'

27'

45+1'

46'

46'

Jo Jin-Ho← M. Petković

54'

R. Milosavljević← I. Yurukov

63'

Radomir MilosavljevićPenalty confirmed

66'

A. VojnovićPenalty

72'

A. Stevanović← N. Krstić

76'

L. Pavlović← L. Luković

80'

I. Tanko← V. Ilić

83'

T. Stewart

86'

P. Ivelja← T. Stewart

86'

Y. Court← V. Lučić

86'

M. Jović← L. Konstantinov

90+2'

Strahinja Manojlović

90+6'

P. Ivelja↳ R. Bosić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnickiIMT

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots9

5Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots9

5On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked1

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

410Total Passes388

304Accurate Passes279

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2