IMT Novi Beograd 1–0 Radnicki NIS: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Radnicki NIS

S. Karamoko 57'

9/21/2025

Super Liga · Round 9Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd40%

×Draw27%

Radnicki NIS33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.15

IMT Novi Beograd

1.31

Radnicki NIS

1.15

IMT Novi Beograd creates 14% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 147 away

1.21

creates per match

1.01

1.28

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Radnicki NIS

1.01

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Radnicki NIS

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

67%

IMT Novi Beograd or Radnicki NIS

73%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

60%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

18%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

73%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

38%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

14%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

68%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

32%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

55%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

40%

level

27%

Radnicki NIS scores more

33%

IMT Novi Beograd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Yamkam

Radnicki NIS · D

8.2

Match Events

42'

Vanja Ilić

42'

Mateja RadonjićGoal cancelled

57'

S. Karamoko↳ V. Radocaj

61'

F. Kanoute← U. Vitas

61'

B. Mboup← M. Mijailovic

61'

J. Nisic← V. Ilic

64'

L. Lukovic← M. Sissako

64'

M. Jovic← D. Zagar

70'

S. Nikolic← M. Radonjic

76'

U. Bonnet← S. Karamoko

76'

V. Kiankaulua← O. Thill

79'

Kone← M. Ilic

90+5'

Nikola Krstić

90+1'

Vladimir Radočaj

90'

Vladimir RadočajCard upgrade

90+2'

Franck Kanouté

90+5'

S. Bastaja← N. Krstic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTRadnicki

Overview

46%Possession54%

6Total Shots12

3Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots12

1On Target1

2Off Target5

3Blocked6

3Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

345Total Passes413

266Accurate Passes343

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0