Radnicki NIS 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda: Result & Stats

Radnicki NIS

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Crvena Zvezda

3/13/2024

Super Liga · Round 25Gradski Stadion Čair

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Radnicki NIS24%

×Draw23%

FK Crvena Zvezda53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki NISExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.83

Radnicki NIS

1.15

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.83

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 59% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 142 away

1.54

creates per match

2.53

1.13

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Radnicki NIS

1.54

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.53

allows per match

Radnicki NIS

1.13

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw

47%

Radnicki NIS or FK Crvena Zvezda

77%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

76%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

9%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

68%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

32%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

11%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

84%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

54%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

31%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.15

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more

24%

level

23%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

53%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff