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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS — Super Liga 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
10/18/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 12Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda69%
×Draw19%
Radnicki NIS12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.17
Radnicki NIS
0.79

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 175% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.91
Radnicki NIS
1.01

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
Radnicki NIS
1.43

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Radnicki NIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
88%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Radnicki NIS
81%
Draw or Radnicki NIS
31%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
45%
Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
89%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
64%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
36%
Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
55%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
19%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
85%
Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.17

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
69%
level
19%
Radnicki NIS scores more
12%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Crvena Zvezda 5–1 Radnicki NIS

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Radnicki NIS 5-1 in Super Liga on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.