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Radnicki NIS vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
8/5/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 3Gradski Stadion Čair (Niš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Radnicki NIS63%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Vranje15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.85
Dinamo Vranje
0.75

Radnicki NIS creates 147% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 19 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
85%
Radnicki NIS or Dinamo Vranje
78%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
37%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
38%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
84%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
55%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
28%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
53%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
17%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
81%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
63%
level
22%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
15%

Radnicki NIS at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Radnicki NIS 2–0 Dinamo Vranje

Radnicki NIS beat Dinamo Vranje 2-0 in Super Liga on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Čair (Niš).