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Dinamo Vranje vs Radnicki NIS — Super Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
12/1/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 18Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Vranje35%
×Draw28%
Radnicki NIS37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.18
Radnicki NIS
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 147 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
0.94
Radnicki NIS
1.01

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.44
Radnicki NIS
1.42

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Radnicki NIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
63%
Dinamo Vranje or Radnicki NIS
72%
Draw or Radnicki NIS
65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
15%
Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
12%
Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
71%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
35%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
48%
Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.94 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
35%
level
28%
Radnicki NIS scores more
37%

Radnicki NIS at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Dinamo Vranje 0–4 Radnicki NIS

Radnicki NIS beat Dinamo Vranje 4-0 in Super Liga on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica).