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Radnicki NIS vs Cukaricki — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki NIS
Radnicki NIS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cukaricki
Cukaricki
12/8/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 18Cair Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Radnicki NIS43%
×Draw26%
Cukaricki32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki NIS
1.45
Cukaricki
1.21

Radnicki NIS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 144 away

creates per match

Radnicki NIS
1.54
Cukaricki
1.29

allows per match

Radnicki NIS
1.13
Cukaricki
1.35

finishing

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par
Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki NIS ↓

Cukaricki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnicki NIS or draw
68%
Radnicki NIS or Cukaricki
74%
Draw or Cukaricki
57%

Winning margin

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+
21%
Cukaricki wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals
77%
Radnicki NIS 2+ goals
42%
Radnicki NIS 3+ goals
18%
Cukaricki 1+ goals
70%
Cukaricki 2+ goals
34%
Cukaricki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)
57%
Cukaricki (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki NIS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 147 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki NIS attack 1.54 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Radnicki NIS scores more
43%
level
26%
Cukaricki scores more
32%

Radnicki NIS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Radnicki NIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki NIS vs Cukaricki

Cukaricki beat Radnicki NIS 2-1 in Super Liga on December 8, 2025.

The match was played at Cair Stadium.