Cukaricki 1–1 Radnicki NIS: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Radnicki NIS

8/3/2025

Super Liga · Round 3Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Cukaricki53%

×Draw25%

Radnicki NIS22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchRadnicki NIS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.95

Cukaricki

1.60

Radnicki NIS

0.95

Cukaricki creates 68% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 148 away

1.77

creates per match

1.01

0.89

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.77

Radnicki NIS

1.01

allows per match

Cukaricki

0.89

Radnicki NIS

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Radnicki NIS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Radnicki NIS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

78%

Cukaricki or Radnicki NIS

75%

Draw or Radnicki NIS

47%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

28%

Radnicki NIS wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

80%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

47%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

22%

Radnicki NIS 1+ goals

61%

Radnicki NIS 2+ goals

25%

Radnicki NIS 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

70%

Radnicki NIS (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

Radnicki NIS away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.43 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + Radnicki NIS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.60

Radnicki NIS attack 1.01 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cukaricki scores more

53%

level

25%

Radnicki NIS scores more

22%

Cukaricki at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff