Radnicki 1923 2–3 Novi Pazar: Result & Stats

Radnicki 1923

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Novi Pazar

B. Adžić 78'

I. Bah 17'

S. Islamović 52'

J. Uzuegbunam 45'

A. Adeshina 42'

5/10/2025

Super Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Radnicki 192345%

×Draw25%

Novi Pazar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki 1923Expected goals in this matchNovi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.18

Radnicki 1923

1.53

Novi Pazar

1.18

Radnicki 1923 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 114 away

1.44

creates per match

1.07

1.28

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Radnicki 1923

1.44

Novi Pazar

1.07

allows per match

Radnicki 1923

1.28

Novi Pazar

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw

71%

Radnicki 1923 or Novi Pazar

75%

Draw or Novi Pazar

55%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

23%

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

78%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

45%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

20%

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

69%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

33%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

61%

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more

45%

level

25%

Novi Pazar scores more

29%

Radnicki 1923 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Islamović

Novi Pazar · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

17'

17'

36'

42'

45'

J. Uzuegbunam↳ S. Islamović

52'

S. Islamović

54'

L. Ben Hassine← J. Ilić

54'

M. Ćosić← T. Dadić

57'

Milan Mitrović

60'

Rodney Antwi

63'

M. Gluščević← B. Mirčetić

67'

E. Brunčević← R. Antwi

70'

Mehmed Ćosić

71'

A. Kovačević← J. Uzuegbunam

73'

Dragan Bojat

75'

Alfa Baldé← M. Ristić

75'

L. Stankovski← K. Bevis

78'

B. Adžić↳ M. Vidosavljević

79'

V. Vidaković← S. Islamović

88'

90+5'

90+5'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnickiNovi

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots8

9Corners4

18Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots8

8On Target5

4Off Target2

8Blocked1

16Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

426Total Passes215

348Accurate Passes148

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls17

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3